Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BD 0xbd8f…6131 crypto 690 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$247 (-3%) realized −$247 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%490W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$8
14 days−$286
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$110
other 16% −$221
weather 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -22.0% -29.5% 38% 38% -8.0%
≤30d 210 -3.8% -13.0% 65% 40% -16.1%
≤90d 688 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 39% -13.1%
all 688 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 39% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 39% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 25% -21.4%
15% -25.5% 17% -29.0%
20% -32.8% 13% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses490 / 198
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)688 / 690
History coverage81d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $68 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $27 $30 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $134 +$44 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $139 −$57 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$18 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $33 −$28 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $104 +$79 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$13 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $39 +$7 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $11 −$5 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $134 −$131 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $84 +$17 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$7 +115%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $207 −$192 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $103 −$60 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $17 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$3 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 +$32 +157%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $11 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $12 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$13 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $23 +$56 +242%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$8 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$3 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $130 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$3 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $109 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $19 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $69 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $81 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 32h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 43h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 43h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 46h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 46h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $38 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $39 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.75 · official $94.75 (match) · 2343 history records