Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd8d…d194 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% $0
other 25% +$24
politics 7% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
sports 1% +$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.6%
all 30 +5.0% -5.0% 53% 10% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 10% -6.0%
10% -14.1% 7% -15.0%
15% -22.4% 7% -23.2%
20% -30.0% 7% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.46 per $1 lost it wins $5.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage486d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 87¢ 87¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $42 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $22 −$2 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 25 $44 −$1 -3%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $44 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $44 +$1 +1%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $43 $0 +1%
Will Trump say 'Gulf of America' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05? Mar 06 $22 +$21 +92%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21? Mar 04 $20 +$4 +18%
Eastern Kentucky vs. Bellarmine Feb 21 $10 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $45 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $43 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $42 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $43 37h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes $1 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $43 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $43 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $9 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $29 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $10 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $28 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $38 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $3 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $15 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.89 · official $41.12 (match) · 82 history records