Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BD 0xbd8b…989e politics 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$10
other 19% −$12
culture 14% −$3
crypto 8% −$3
tech 7% −$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$874) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage82d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $922 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $932 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 18 $995 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 19 $809 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $891 −$10 -1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $822 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $874 −$2 -0%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $920 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 18 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Will Zalatoris win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $965 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $13 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $920 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 2h
Will Karen Khachanov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $33 2h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $922 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $930 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 24h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $992 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $979 25h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 25h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $728 25h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $246 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $16 25h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $975 25h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $67 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 27d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 27d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records