Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd8b…5b4a weather 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate89%63W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days−$77
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$33
world 2% +$8
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.0% -8.7% 88% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 34 -0.9% -10.3% 85% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 66 -0.0% -9.5% 89% 0% -9.9%
all 71 +2.2% -7.5% 89% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 1% -9.8%
10% -16.4% 1% -18.5%
15% -24.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -31.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses63 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage115d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 24? No 98¢ 95¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 −$63 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $135 −$26 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $129 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $254 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $125 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $125 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $122 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $125 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $118 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $113 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29? May 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 28? May 28 $107 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 27? May 26 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 23? May 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $111 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 18? May 20 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 15? May 15 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 14? May 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 13? May 13 $105 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 12? May 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 11? May 11 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 10? May 10 $102 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 9? May 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8? May 08 $105 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $52 −$4 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $90 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $88 36h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $89 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $89 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $89 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $89 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $89 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $89 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $88 5d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 43¢ $47 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $110 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $110 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $110 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $110 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $109 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 72¢ $16 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 81¢ $93 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $135 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $135 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $134 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $133 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $129 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $129 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $128 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $130 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 96¢ $125 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.82 · official $101.82 (match) · 154 history records