Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd8a…53c7 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$106 (+10%) realized +$104 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$112
sports 6% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 50% -0.0%
≤30d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 50% -0.0%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 50% -0.0%
all 12 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 50% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% -0.0%
10% -17.6% 42% -9.6%
15% -25.5% 25% -18.3%
20% -32.8% 17% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$3 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $251 +$34 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$30 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $151 +$51 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $53 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 11¢ $7 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $10 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $100 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $110 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $90 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $41 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.97 · official $51.97 (match) · 27 history records