Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BD 0xbd8a…f9bd other 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,792 (+3%) realized +$4,234 · open +$558
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate68%343W / 165L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$24,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$108
14 days+$331
30 days+$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$383
politics 23% +$720
other 19% +$1,519
economics 9% +$699
crypto 7% +$1,198
culture 5% +$51
finance 2% −$49
tech 1% +$78
sports 0% −$48
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 29% -4.8%
≤30d 61 -3.0% -12.2% 77% 23% -7.5%
≤90d 180 -7.6% -16.4% 68% 18% -7.7%
all 508 -2.7% -12.0% 68% 25% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 25% -7.0%
10% -20.4% 13% -15.9%
15% -28.1% 9% -24.1%
20% -35.1% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$23 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$24,010
Realized+$4,234
Unrealized+$558
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses343 / 165
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions67
Markets (closed)508 / 575
History coverage190d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $7,291 $7,436 +$145 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $4,772 $4,973 +$200 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $4,575 $4,625 +$50 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $1,230 $1,238 +$8 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $934 $994 +$61 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $489 $487 −$2 (-0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $449 $480 +$31 (+7%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $301 $302 +$1 (+0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 97¢ $244 $244 −$1 (-0%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $226 $227 +$1 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $218 $219 +$1 (+1%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 91¢ $189 $215 +$27 (+14%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $212 $215 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $214 $213 −$1 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $176 $200 +$24 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $184 $199 +$15 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $169 $163 −$6 (-4%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 86¢ 99¢ $129 $149 +$20 (+15%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $94 $99 +$5 (+5%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 74¢ 85¢ $74 $85 +$11 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 17 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 17 $71 −$23 -32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$2 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $204 +$46 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $91 +$34 +37%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $446 +$53 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +54%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $193 −$3 -2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $480 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 10 $200 +$9 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $91 −$1 -1%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 07 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 06 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 06 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 06 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $4,091 +$94 +2%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 06 $134 +$4 +3%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $204 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $490 +$9 +2%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $980 +$10 +1%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 04 $465 +$30 +6%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima Jun 04 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 03 $1,126 +$6 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $272 +$70 +26%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 03 $900 +$30 +3%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 02 $232 −$23 -10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Jun 02 $471 +$30 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $276 +$18 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $172 +$8 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $132 +$9 +7%
Kash Patel out by May 31? Jun 01 $83 +$17 +21%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 01 $234 +$16 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $245 +$5 +2%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $481 +$19 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $483 +$17 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? May 31 $6,425 +$139 +2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 30 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 30 $180 +$20 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $89 −$33 -37%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 98¢ $245 1m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $1,838 24m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $74 30m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $97 36m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes $0 40m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes $0 40m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 63¢ $30 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $136 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $146 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $218 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $277 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $212 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 39h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $94 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $176 45h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $226 2d
Will Uzbekistan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 93¢ $47 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $8 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,010.06 · official $24,009.84 (match) · 2949 history records