Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd87…6bf9
crypto · 57 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$513 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$398 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized+$398
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses19 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage172d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$673
14 days+$673
30 days+$673
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Down 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Down 3¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $63 −$59 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $151 −$144 -95%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $71 +$282 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$9 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $13 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$9 +34%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 10 $51 −$36 -71%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $23 −$11 -47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $142 +$878 +618%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $300 −$293 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $50 +$311 +622%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 15 $53 −$38 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 25 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Dec 25 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 25 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 25 $29 +$73 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Dec 24 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 24 $103 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Dec 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Dec 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 24 $26 −$16 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$390
world 26% +$820
other 2% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 2¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 2¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 4¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 4¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 2¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 4¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +14.8% +3.9% 35% 35% +64.3%
≤30d 31 +19.7% +8.3% 32% 32% +41.5%
≤90d 40 +4.4% -5.6% 32% 32% +25.9%
all 56 -3.6% -12.8% 34% 32% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 32% +7.6%
10% -21.1% 25% -2.7%
15% -28.8% 23% -12.1%
20% -35.7% 21% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.07 · official $45.07 (match) · 149 history records