Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd87…286b other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$13
finance 22% +$27
economics 9% $0
crypto 9% −$12
politics 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.0% -1.3% 29% 29% -9.6%
≤30d 7 +9.0% -1.3% 29% 29% -9.6%
≤90d 7 +9.0% -1.3% 29% 29% -9.6%
all 12 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 33% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 33% -9.2%
10% -15.6% 33% -17.9%
15% -23.7% 33% -25.9%
20% -31.2% 17% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage97d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 28 $114 −$7 -6%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 28 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 −$5 -30%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 28 $11 −$1 -8%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? Jun 28 $33 +$13 +40%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 28 $8 +$12 +154%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 28 $17 −$12 -70%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Mar 28 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 28 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 25 $18 +$7 +40%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $10 +$7 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $106 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $7 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? SELL No 65¢ $12 1h
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? SELL No 65¢ $35 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $20 1h
US recession by end of 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $114 91d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 50¢ $7 92d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 49¢ $8 92d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? BUY No 30¢ $8 92d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? SELL No 51¢ $12 92d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 51¢ $7 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL No 73¢ $25 95d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 96d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 96d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? BUY No 54¢ $25 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? BUY Up 61¢ $8 96d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 24? BUY Down 60¢ $10 96d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 96d
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 53¢ $14 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? BUY No 68¢ $16 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 52¢ $18 96d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records