Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd81…3874 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$128 (-10%) realized −$129 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$186
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$264
other 43% +$154
crypto 2% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -5.6% -14.6% 29% 29% -28.0%
≤30d 39 -4.8% -13.8% 31% 31% -20.3%
≤90d 39 -4.8% -13.8% 31% 31% -20.3%
all 39 -4.8% -13.8% 31% 31% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 31% -20.3%
10% -22.1% 31% -27.9%
15% -29.6% 31% -34.9%
20% -36.5% 31% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$26 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage13d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States leading at halftime? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$36 +72%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$19 -63%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 +$97 +1290%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$42 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$97 +91%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$20 +98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$12 +57%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$97 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $24 −$23 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$74 +146%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $49 −$48 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $47 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 6h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 99¢ $87 9h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 57¢ $51 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 31h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $51 33h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 36h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 37h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 11¢ $11 38h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $85 38h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 39h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 35¢ $51 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 47¢ $51 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.51 · official $46.51 (match) · 59 history records