Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd7e…649c world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$4
sports 19% −$1
other 14% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 25% 12% -9.3%
≤30d 27 -0.6% -10.0% 41% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 34 -0.3% -9.8% 41% 3% -9.4%
all 53 -1.3% -10.7% 45% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 6% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 4% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage530d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 +$6 +20%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $105 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $177 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $104 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $114 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $143 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $74 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $17 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $6 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $34 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $239 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $239 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $265 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $175 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $239 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $7 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $8 $0 +0%
Florida International vs. UTEP Mar 03 $4 +$4 +96%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on January 24? Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 29-30°F on January 25? Feb 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $32 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $22 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $16 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $22 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records