trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $129 | $97 | −$32 (-25%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $51 | $43 | −$8 (-15%) |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $38 | $17 | −$22 (-57%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $28 | $11 | −$17 (-61%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $6 | −$3 (-34%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $67 | $0 | −$67 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day | Jun 12 | $17 | +$21 | +121% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? | Jun 11 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $78 | −$67 | -85% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? | Apr 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | Apr 22 | $4 | −$4 | -93% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +10.6% | +0.1% | 50% | 50% | +65.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -26.1% | -33.2% | 33% | 33% | -60.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -55.7% | -59.9% | 20% | 20% | -63.4% |
| all | 5 | -55.7% | -59.9% | 20% | 20% | -63.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -59.9% | 20% | -63.4% |
| 10% | -63.7% | 20% | -66.9% |
| 15% | -67.2% | 20% | -70.1% |
| 20% | -70.5% | 20% | -73.0% |