Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BD 0xbd7c…ddb4 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+18%) realized +$54 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$64
sports 9% −$1
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 44% +24.2%
≤30d 9 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 44% +24.2%
≤90d 9 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 44% +24.2%
all 9 -8.0% -16.8% 44% 44% +24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 44% +24.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 22% +12.3%
15% -32.0% 22% +1.5%
20% -38.7% 22% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$12 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+12%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $42 +$104 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $27 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +61%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 +$7 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $63 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $91 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND BUY 29¢ $10 3h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 19h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $9 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND W BUY 19¢ $8 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $12 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $10 21h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $39 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.71 · official $171.50 · 22 history records