Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd76…f5a4
politics · 134 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 121
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage120d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Pacers vs. Clippers Pacers 15¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spurs vs. 76ers 76ers 27¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Raptors 33¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Kings Kings 35¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Jazz vs. 76ers Jazz 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $130 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $61 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $57 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $287 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $194 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $78 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $122 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $122 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $72 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$5
politics 37% −$69
sports 8% +$7
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 10h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 17h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 19d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 19d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $61 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 21d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $73 22d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $73 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 23d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 23d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $73 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -1.1% -10.5% 5% 0% -10.3%
all 133 -0.4% -9.9% 9% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -10.2%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.00 · official $7.00 (match) · 385 history records