Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd74…76b9 sports 213 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,486 (-13%) realized −$1,487 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%87W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$25
14 days+$55
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,743
weather 6% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.4% +8.0% 57% 57% +3.7%
≤30d 44 +31.4% +18.8% 55% 52% +13.9%
≤90d 133 -1.0% -10.4% 42% 41% -23.2%
all 212 -3.6% -12.7% 41% 38% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 38% -21.5%
10% -21.1% 34% -29.1%
15% -28.7% 30% -35.9%
20% -35.7% 27% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$36 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,487
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses87 / 125
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage114d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 25? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -31%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +131%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 +$24 +58%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +75%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$20 +196%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 7? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$8 +106%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 31? Jun 05 $1 −$2 -190%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 29? Jun 05 $8 −$16 -192%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 31? Jun 05 $1 −$2 -191%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 24? Jun 05 $1 −$2 -193%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 14? Jun 05 $10 −$20 -199%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 31? Jun 05 $2 −$4 -195%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 24? Jun 05 $2 −$4 -192%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 29? Jun 05 $8 +$22 +265%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 05 $10 +$14 +139%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 −$1 -17%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$8 +83%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$4 +132%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$8 +245%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$11 +204%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 28? May 28 $15 −$2 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 27? May 27 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 27? May 26 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 26? May 25 $10 −$5 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $6 +$11 +183%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 24? May 24 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 18? May 21 $5 +$10 +202%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 16? May 17 $43 +$16 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 17? May 16 $40 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 39m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $82 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 85¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 89¢ $60 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 61¢ $5 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? SELL No 64¢ $5 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $10 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL Yes 82¢ $35 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL FlyQuest 29¢ $1 7d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 31¢ $1 7d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: SELL FlyQuest 28¢ $1 7d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY FlyQuest 32¢ $1 7d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 0¢ $1 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $10 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $10 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.66 · official $1.66 (match) · 711 history records