Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd73…de1b other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%22W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$24
other 24% −$20
sports 20% −$20
world 6% −$5
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$8
finance 5% −$9
culture 4% −$5
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.3% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 146 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 157 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses22 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage101d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 17 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $62 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $716 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 14 $38 −$4 -9%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $885 −$2 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $288 −$2 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Alisson Becker record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 09 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -4%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $140 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $108 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 02 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $396 −$2 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $116 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 10h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 10h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 17h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 18h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 23h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 23h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 32h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $45 32h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $45 36h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $53 37h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $53 42h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $61 42h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $62 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $62 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $62 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $47 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $47 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $56 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 84¢ $35 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 91¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.15 · official $59.15 (match) · 687 history records