Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd71…1281 weather 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%96W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day112.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$246
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +26.5% +14.5% 45% 37% -15.1%
≤30d 221 +26.2% +14.2% 43% 36% -11.8%
≤90d 221 +26.2% +14.2% 43% 36% -11.8%
all 221 +26.2% +14.2% 43% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.2% 36% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 32% -20.3%
15% -6.7% 27% -28.0%
20% -15.8% 23% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses96 / 125
Open positions6
Markets (closed)221 / 228
History coverage10d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day112.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $9 $20 +$10 (+110%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 46¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+102%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+86%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Yes 21¢ 31¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $113 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $27 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $76 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 +$59 +378%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 −$12 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$9 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$31 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$4 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$13 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$20 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 −$37 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $79 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$11 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$7 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$19 +274%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 −$21 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$6 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$6 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$11 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $87 −$9 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$12 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$7 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 −$19 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$11 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$10 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $53 +$21 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 9m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 81¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 25m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL No 38¢ $17 29m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 48¢ $3 41m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 48¢ $1 42m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL No 41¢ $3 44m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 51¢ $23 44m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 49m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 49m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? SELL Yes 52¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL No 73¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 44¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 45¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.44 · official $86.86 (match) · 1189 history records