Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd70…d270 other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$50,014 (+27%) realized +$51,155 · open −$1,141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%40W / 59L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,771per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$5,990now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 150d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$9,837
politics 47% −$86
economics 2% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -61.1% -64.8% 0% 0% -54.7%
≤30d 28 +34.4% +21.6% 25% 25% -27.8%
≤90d 71 -1.5% -10.9% 28% 24% -29.4%
all 99 +6.4% -3.7% 40% 33% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 33% +0.4%
10% -12.9% 30% -9.2%
15% ← realistic here -21.3% 22% -18.0%
20% -29.0% 19% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$816) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$552 vs −$187 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$5,990
Realized+$51,155
Unrealized−$1,141
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses40 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)99 / 106
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$1,771
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $2,062 $3,327 +$1,264 (+61%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $2,062 $798 −$1,264 (-61%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 79¢ $884 $791 −$92 (-10%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 54¢ 66¢ $590 $713 +$122 (+21%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 64¢ 90¢ $64 $91 +$27 (+42%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $69 $71 +$2 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 32¢ $8 $70 +$62 (+742%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 29¢ 68¢ $29 $68 +$38 (+131%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $97 $61 −$36 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $223 −$62 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $349 −$38 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $87 −$42 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $90 −$55 -61%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $173 −$22 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $54 −$49 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $502 −$498 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $142 −$133 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $201 −$153 -76%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $131 +$213 +162%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $297 +$330 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $46 −$36 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $888 +$503 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $342 −$156 -46%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $52 −$49 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $280 −$251 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $70 +$38 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $130 −$82 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $260 −$258 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $282 −$190 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $123 +$82 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $107 −$8 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $455 −$326 -72%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $311 +$284 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $132 +$114 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $8 −$7 -86%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $426 −$415 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $89 −$9 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $409 +$275 +67%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $337 +$160 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $86 +$55 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $610 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2,483 +$393 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 −$8 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 −$15 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $431 −$219 -51%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $235 +$41 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $240 +$483 +201%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $702 +$46 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $275 −$136 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Apr 19 $56 −$30 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Apr 19 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Apr 19 $779 −$779 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Apr 19 $1,029 +$24 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 0m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $16 41m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $66 41m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $49 42m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $57 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 5h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $63 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 8h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $74 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $27 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,990.12 · official $5,990.12 (match) · 3500 history records