Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbd6c…21ed sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,067 (+8%) realized +$1,082 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$811per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,845now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$274
7 days−$274
14 days+$1,594
30 days+$1,594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$594
other 25% +$713
tech 18% +$568
world 17% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.3% -28.8% 40% 40% -15.6%
≤30d 15 +31.4% +18.9% 53% 53% +3.5%
≤90d 15 +31.4% +18.9% 53% 53% +3.5%
all 15 +31.4% +18.9% 53% 53% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 53% +3.5%
10% +7.5% 47% -6.4%
15% -2.9% 40% -15.5%
20% -12.4% 33% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$441 vs −$276 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,845
Realized+$1,082
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage10d
Avg bet$811
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1,860 $1,845 −$15 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,118 +$763 +68%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $305 −$305 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,129 −$1,087 -51%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $507 +$387 +76%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,200 −$295 -13%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $503 +$109 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$541 +265%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $121 +$386 +320%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 −$191 -63%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$9 -30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$334 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2,319 +$568 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,882 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 46¢ $628 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $1,252 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1,118 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $1,042 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $812 5h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 93¢ $894 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1,318 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $305 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 60¢ $1,905 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $15 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 97¢ $745 8d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $507 8d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 8d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $113 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 82¢ $503 8d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 29¢ $21 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 8d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $31 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $304 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $200 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $2,000 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 80¢ $2,319 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,845.30 · official $1,845.30 (match) · 35 history records