Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd65…b3df other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+12%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$57
sports 26% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.5% -22.6% 57% 29% -23.9%
≤30d 7 -14.5% -22.6% 57% 29% -23.9%
≤90d 7 -14.5% -22.6% 57% 29% -23.9%
all 7 -14.5% -22.6% 57% 29% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 29% -23.9%
10% -30.0% 14% -31.2%
15% -36.8% 14% -37.8%
20% -43.0% 14% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$30 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $89 −$58 -65%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $53 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $54 +$29 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$3 +11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 −$3 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $89 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 65¢ $20 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 41¢ $23 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $32 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 68¢ $35 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $1 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $30 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records