Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd65…7cae sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$114 (-54%) realized −$126 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$17
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-68.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -41.5% -47.1% 33% 33% -44.3%
≤90d 5 -64.9% -68.3% 20% 20% -87.4%
all 5 -64.9% -68.3% 20% 20% -87.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.3% 20% -87.4%
10% -71.3% 20% -88.6%
15% -74.1% 20% -89.7%
20% -76.6% 20% -90.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage57d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 80¢ 100¢ $48 $60 +$12 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $9 +$7 +75%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 80¢ $48 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 63¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $17 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 60¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 19¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $15 12d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif BUY Aurora 57¢ $9 18d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Team Resilience 15¢ $6 45d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Team Resilience 15¢ $3 45d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Vici Gaming (BO5) - ACL X ESL Challenger Ch BUY Team Resilience 15¢ $6 45d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 53¢ $21 56d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 53¢ $53 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.97 · official $59.97 (match) · 16 history records