Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd62…aec3
other · 244 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$94 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$94 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage128d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 0 History 244 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $218 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $116 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $118 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $730 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $699 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $336 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $302 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $396 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $277 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $278 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $138 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $196 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $485 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $316 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $393 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $219 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 27 $153 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$39
sports 25% −$30
culture 8% −$8
politics 7% −$5
world 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
economics 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 4h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 6h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 7h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 7h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 10h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 11h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 11h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 13h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 23h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 25h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 26h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 28h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 30h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 32h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 33h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 35h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 36h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 38h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1311 history records