Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbd60…423a sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$715 (-2%) realized −$744 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%32W / 37L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$476per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$262est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$653
7 days+$743
14 days+$716
30 days+$1,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,527
world 34% −$630
other 8% −$919
crypto 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +72.3% +55.9% 53% 53% -5.0%
≤30d 39 +62.7% +47.2% 51% 51% -3.1%
≤90d 65 +33.9% +21.1% 48% 48% -7.8%
all 69 +30.1% +17.7% 46% 45% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 45% -8.6%
10% +6.4% 42% -17.3%
15% -3.8% 39% -25.3%
20% -13.3% 38% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$673) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$317 vs −$273 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$744
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$262
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage112d
Avg bet$476
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+54%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $52 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,533 +$909 +59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $708 −$700 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $171 −$169 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,881 +$1,072 +57%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $34 +$41 +124%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $811 −$800 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,844 +$807 +44%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $255 −$250 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $962 −$206 -21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 +$126 +247%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 +$182 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 +$897 +871%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $43 +$526 +1233%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $203 +$241 +119%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $253 +$193 +76%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $254 −$250 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $745 −$115 -15%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 14 $673 −$450 -67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$55 +106%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $403 −$19 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $194 +$111 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $203 +$148 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $700 +$417 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $129 +$102 +79%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $1,941 −$144 -7%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $51 −$31 -61%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $645 +$576 +89%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $77 −$42 -55%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $344 −$340 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $25 −$14 -56%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $216 +$139 +64%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $160 +$55 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 12 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026 Apr 12 $1,569 −$1,405 -90%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $76 −$76 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $277 −$7 -2%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 11 $250 +$242 +97%
Suns vs. Lakers Apr 11 $25 −$10 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 62¢ $572 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 62¢ $960 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Türkiye win BUY 26¢ $511 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $708 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $304 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $171 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1,881 29h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $304 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 54¢ $507 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $34 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1,844 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1,009 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $255 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $757 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $406 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $404 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $81 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $100 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $101 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $43 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $203 4d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 41¢ $254 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.29 · official $129.29 (match) · 200 history records