Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd60…07e0 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate61%25W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$4
other 22% +$3
politics 18% +$2
crypto 8% +$1
sports 7% −$2
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.0% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 7 -0.9% -10.4% 43% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -7.0% -15.9% 55% 18% -9.9%
all 41 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 7% -9.4%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses25 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage465d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $85 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $83 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $81 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $43 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $8 −$2 -24%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
2025 May hottest on record? May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 25 $14 −$2 -15%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Jake Paul fight Artur Beterbiev next? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 08 $17 $0 +1%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 07 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $3 $0 +3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 31 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $15 +$2 +17%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anton Pisaroglu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 19 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $39 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $13 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $4 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $22 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $40 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $35 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $44 13h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $39 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $43 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $43 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $38 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $17 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $23 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 7¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 7¢ $5 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 9¢ $8 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $40 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.48 · official $38.48 (match) · 109 history records