Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd5e…843d
crypto · 1083 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$373 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$384 · open +$11
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$384
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses500 / 569
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1069 / 1083
History coverage59d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 1069 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$47
14 days−$482
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Yes 18¢ 99¢ $3 $14 +$11 (+452%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $2 $10 +$7 (+299%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $2 $9 +$6 (+244%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 33¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+203%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 19¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+426%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 13¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+669%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 14¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+614%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 12¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+733%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 4? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$15 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$19 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$14 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$18 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$180
weather 24% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $22 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $16 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 357 +73.2% +56.7% 48% 47% -15.5%
≤30d 603 +38.0% +24.8% 38% 37% -18.3%
≤90d 1069 +25.6% +13.7% 47% 40% -16.2%
all 1069 +25.6% +13.7% 47% 40% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.7% 40% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here +2.8% 32% -24.2%
15% -7.2% 26% -31.5%
20% -16.3% 23% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.34 · official $49.82 (match) · 3500 history records