Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BD 0xbd5c…8408 sports 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,171 (+5%) realized +$1,185 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate73%77W / 29L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$10,725now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$100
14 days−$157
30 days+$1,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$1,009
other 20% +$440
crypto 18% +$295
sports 13% +$482
finance 7% +$118
politics 4% +$373
economics 4% +$77
tech 1% +$50
weather 1% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +101.9% +82.7% 80% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 46 +52.8% +38.2% 78% 59% -0.7%
≤90d 106 +27.6% +15.5% 73% 59% -3.0%
all 106 +27.6% +15.5% 73% 59% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.5% 59% -3.0%
10% +4.4% 46% -12.3%
15% -5.7% 42% -20.8%
20% -14.9% 27% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$71 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$10,725
Realized+$1,185
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses77 / 29
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions56
Markets (closed)106 / 162
History coverage64d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 79¢ 94¢ $2,101 $2,487 +$385 (+18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 44¢ $1,247 $976 −$271 (-22%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 66¢ 84¢ $403 $516 +$113 (+28%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $408 $449 +$42 (+10%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 82¢ $280 $331 +$51 (+18%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $302 $308 +$6 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $280 $279 −$1 (-0%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $280 $276 −$4 (-2%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $270 $274 +$4 (+1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $249 $262 +$13 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $619 $259 −$360 (-58%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 74¢ 62¢ $280 $235 −$45 (-16%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $220 $218 −$2 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 52¢ 40¢ $278 $216 −$61 (-22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 96¢ 87¢ $230 $207 −$23 (-10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 86¢ 99¢ $175 $202 +$28 (+16%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $170 $195 +$25 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $185 $185 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 76¢ $130 $182 +$52 (+40%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 91¢ $185 $178 −$7 (-4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $130 $154 +$24 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $130 $132 +$2 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 44¢ 44¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $23 +$9 +38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$10 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$32 +78%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $250 +$3 +1%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$31 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $23 +$17 +72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $46 +$10 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $75 +$12 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $100 +$53 +54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $37 +$8 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $65 +$3 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $32 +$3 +9%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $130 +$3 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $44 +$32 +72%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $400 −$264 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $150 +$7 +4%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $177 +$71 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $441 −$441 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $365 +$176 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 03 $102 +$93 +91%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 03 $450 +$182 +40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,239 +$448 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 02 $130 +$50 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 02 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $1,173 +$210 +18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $250 +$13 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $430 +$14 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $115 +$38 +33%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $99 +$72 +72%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $322 +$238 +74%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $195 +$75 +38%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $132 −$130 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $282 +$112 +40%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $136 +$96 +71%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 27 $155 +$17 +11%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $175 +$38 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils May 25 $304 −$10 -3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 24 $188 −$175 -93%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $402 +$45 +11%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $420 +$207 +49%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $300 +$19 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $400 −$400 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $797 +$217 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $31 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $40 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $49 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 9h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 9h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 9h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 98¢ $100 9h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY No 80¢ $45 12h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $24 29h
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 35h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $27 38h
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 44h
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $99 45h
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $25 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $23 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $7 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $23 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $25 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 3d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY No 92¢ $90 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $38 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,725.48 · official $10,725.20 (match) · 622 history records