Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd5c…f863 other 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$23
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$24
politics 21% −$14
sports 20% −$12
crypto 7% −$4
culture 5% −$3
economics 4% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 3% −$2
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 63 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 135 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 116
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage99d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $170 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $491 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $90 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $69 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $66 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $170 $0 -0%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $103 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $43 −$2 -4%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $159 −$1 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 04 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $107 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $113 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $102 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $101 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $196 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $43 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $49 27m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $39 59m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $39 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 12h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 13h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 98¢ $57 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 94¢ $14 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 94¢ $38 25h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 26h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $38 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 38h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 39h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $62 46h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $42 47h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $62 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $44 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $44 3d
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $47 3d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $69 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.50 · official $48.50 (match) · 465 history records