Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd57…4c90 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-5%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate77%55W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$43
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$58
sports 13% +$11
other 11% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.5% -20.0% 81% 16% -12.3%
≤30d 31 -11.5% -20.0% 81% 16% -12.3%
≤90d 71 -7.3% -16.1% 77% 34% -13.6%
all 71 -7.3% -16.1% 77% 34% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 34% -13.6%
10% -24.1% 17% -21.9%
15% -31.5% 13% -29.5%
20% -38.2% 7% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses55 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage50d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$5 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $62 +$3 +4%
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$7 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$7 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 06 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 06 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 06 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 06 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 06 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 05 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 05 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 05 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 05 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 05 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 05 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 05 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 05 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 05 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 04 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 04 $4 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $60 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $61 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $60 9h
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 96¢ $62 11h
Paraguay to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 98¢ $60 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $54 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $35 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records