Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BD 0xbd56…fc75 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 42L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$2
world 28% −$8
other 18% +$1
sports 13% $0
crypto 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.7% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 23 +0.4% -9.1% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 72 -4.1% -13.3% 42% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage469d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $140 $141 +$1 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 49¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $60 +$6 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $165 −$13 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $62 −$3 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $161 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $156 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $161 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $116 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $15 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 18 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $958 +$2 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 13 $958 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,007 +$4 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,052 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $956 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $962 −$5 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $140 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $66 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $60 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $110 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $159 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $109 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $160 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $35 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $62 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $58 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $88 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $161 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $156 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $156 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $161 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.96 · official $140.61 (match) · 198 history records