Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd51…4f91
other · 75 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$74
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 41
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage463d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 1 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 25¢ 22¢ $82 $73 −$8 (-10%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $157 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 26 $64 +$6 +10%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $63 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $1,932 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $962 +$4 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $182 −$2 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $352 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Oct 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be greater than 32% in the first round Jul 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -87%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Friday? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 18 $17 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% +$1
politics 24% +$1
sports 16% −$1
world 12% −$7
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $82 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $169 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $173 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $20 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $138 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 93¢ $112 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 93¢ $46 47h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $37 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $15 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $14 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $72 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $72 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $132 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $173 3d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 97¢ $70 47d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 88¢ $64 48d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL No 50¢ $1 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL No 50¢ $13 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL No 50¢ $56 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY No 50¢ $70 49d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL No 89¢ $64 51d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 87¢ $58 51d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? BUY No 87¢ $5 51d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 52d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.8% -26.6% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 -18.8% -26.6% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 74 -0.8% -10.3% 45% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.81 · official $73.35 (match) · 197 history records