Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BD 0xbd51…2358 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%45W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
sports 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 54 +0.1% -9.5% 83% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses45 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage546d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $5,527 −$6 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Mar 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 08 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $425 - 430b on February 28? Mar 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by January 31? Feb 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 13 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $40 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 93d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 122d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 123d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 123d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 149d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $33 151d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $6 180d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $18 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $29 182d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $37 211d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 99¢ $8 241d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 99¢ $11 241d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $30 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $12 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $30 303d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $4 332d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 334d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8 366d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.30 · official $50.30 (match) · 113 history records