Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd4d…06a1 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-10%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 41% -25.9%
≤30d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 41% -25.9%
≤90d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 41% -25.9%
all 17 -5.5% -14.5% 71% 41% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 41% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 35% -33.0%
15% -30.2% 29% -39.5%
20% -37.0% 24% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records