Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd4b…ce9b politics 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 656d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$22
other 25% −$4
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 102 -13.0% -21.3% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -28.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -35.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -42.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

656d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage656d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will 16-18 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025? Nov 25 $59 $0 -0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $4 $0 -0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Maccabi TLV win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chris Paul lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
TikTok banned in the US in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in December? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy market cap dip to $50b in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Jan 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Dec 20 $0 $0 -3%
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Djesse Vol. 4' win Album of the Year? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Rainbow airdrop in 2024? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Dec 09 $0 $0 -7%
26-50 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Auburn win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Red Bulls win the 2024 MLS Cup? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 11h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 16d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 29d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 29d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 34d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 34d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $58 38d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $58 38d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $59 65d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $59 66d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $59 82d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $60 82d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 92d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 92d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 92d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $60 97d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $16 97d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $43 97d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 99d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 100d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 104d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 104d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $60 108d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $60 109d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 112d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 129d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 130d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 249 history records