Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BD 0xbd49…7fe8 crypto 646 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,008 (-15%) realized −$2,008 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%636W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$86
finance 9% +$16
other 7% −$45
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 297 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -8.2%
≤90d 648 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.1%
all 648 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$18 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$2,008
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses636 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)648 / 646
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 648 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Jun 17 $0 −$6 -6022%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $17 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 12h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 29h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $17 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.74 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records