Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd46…3f22 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$80
other 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% +9.5%
≤30d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% +9.5%
≤90d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% +9.5%
all 8 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 38% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 38% +9.5%
10% -21.9% 38% -1.0%
15% -29.5% 38% -10.6%
20% -36.4% 38% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$26 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 24 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $104 +$103 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 39m
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 2h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.10 (match) · 17 history records