Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:58:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd45…3dd4 other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 902d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$20,324 (+33%) realized +$20,392 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%59W / 113L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$25,052
culture 13% −$2,932
sports 12% −$2,303
crypto 4% −$157
economics 2% +$1,085
world 1% −$265
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -58.0% -62.0% 14% 14% -11.8%
all 172 +3.8% -6.1% 34% 26% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 26% +11.3%
10% -15.1% 24% +0.6%
15% -23.3% 22% -9.1%
20% -30.8% 20% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$672 vs −$173 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

902d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$20,392
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses59 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)172 / 176
History coverage902d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $109 $101 −$8 (-7%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $93 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $59 $57 −$2 (-3%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $71 $9 −$61 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 18 $57 −$23 -40%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $96 −$96 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? May 02 $69 −$69 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 22 $200 +$269 +134%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 07 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 07 $255 +$191 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 06 $100 −$86 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 06 $224 −$224 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 06 $200 +$152 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 06 $141 +$85 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 06 $1,010 −$613 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 06 $85 −$59 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 06 $152 −$66 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 06 $152 −$115 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 06 $30 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 06 $137 −$70 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 06 $16 +$83 +517%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 06 $108 +$62 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 06 $67 +$41 +62%
Will Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Mar 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $257 −$68 -26%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 +$42 +42%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Feb 28 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 28 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 24 $65 −$44 -68%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 24 $30 +$30 +100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 22 $10 +$323 +3233%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 22 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 22 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 1h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 16h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $90 34h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 40h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 7d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 7d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 8d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 10d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 10d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 10d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $73 10d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $96 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.70 · official $263.70 (match) · 936 history records