Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd41…b64c crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%54W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 54 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses54 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage79d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $136 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $134 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $134 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 07 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? May 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 26? Apr 27 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $137 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $136 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $136 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $136 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $134 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $133 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $134 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $133 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $133 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $133 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $133 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $132 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $132 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $1 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $132 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $132 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $132 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $132 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $132 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $131 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $131 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.10 · official $137.10 (match) · 109 history records