Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd41…2b3d world 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%37W / 62L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$6
other 27% +$39
politics 21% −$4
sports 11% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 28 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 77 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 1% -9.6%
all 99 -0.2% -9.7% 37% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 62
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage362d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $89 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $78 −$2 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $277 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $78 +$2 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $11 −$2 -16%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $152 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $290 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $252 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $8 $0 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $170 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $78 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $122 −$7 -6%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $92 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 19 $85 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $86 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 10 $85 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $85 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $5 +$1 +29%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $351 −$2 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $4 $0 +5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $9 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $162 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $173 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $6 $0 -6%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 16 $81 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $79 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $10 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $83 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $81 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $68 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $48 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $28 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $79 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $76 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $78 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.26 · official $78.26 (match) · 417 history records