Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd3c…0b02 politics 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$15
other 41% −$23
crypto 5% −$1
sports 5% +$10
economics 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 123 +2.7% -7.1% 11% 7% -9.4%
all 135 -0.9% -10.3% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 6% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×7.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage115d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $176 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $190 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $322 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $351 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $341 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $218 −$12 -6%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $349 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $407 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $184 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $152 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $164 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $314 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $150 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $159 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $171 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $174 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $182 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 24 $162 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 22 $223 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 4h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 19d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 20d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $147 22d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 22d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $143 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $144 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $176 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 373 history records