Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd3c…fc78
sports · 925 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2,841 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,916 · open +$87
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,305
Realized−$2,916
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses410 / 479
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions37
Markets (closed)889 / 925
History coverage36d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day84.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 37 History 889 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$1,629
14 days−$2,059
30 days−$2,955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $99 $103 +$4 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 30¢ 62¢ $50 $102 +$52 (+105%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his next YouTube video? No 87¢ 100¢ $88 $101 +$13 (+14%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 83¢ 76¢ $106 $97 −$9 (-9%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $75 $87 +$12 (+16%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 94¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+17%)
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $33 $64 +$31 (+93%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 78¢ 86¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? No 63¢ 85¢ $26 $36 +$9 (+35%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $23 $30 +$6 (+27%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 46¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 73¢ 67¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-8%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? Yes 39¢ 57¢ $15 $21 +$7 (+46%)
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 51¢ $32 $20 −$12 (-39%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+16%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 26¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-33%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 61¢ 65¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 60¢ $17 $14 −$2 (-14%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 46¢ 44¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-06? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +19%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 +$7 +55%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$3 +11%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $24 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $23 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $22 $0 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$8 -33%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $23 −$2 -6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $70 −$7 -11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 +$9 +23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $114 −$58 -51%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$2 +9%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $76 +$33 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $38 +$4 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $76 +$48 +63%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,573 −$1,529 -97%
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Jun 11 $0 $0 +5%
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$4 -31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -66%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$14 -71%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $38 +$6 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $6 +$31 +505%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $75 +$184 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$2,656
other 23% −$137
politics 6% −$102
world 6% +$168
finance 4% +$28
crypto 3% −$20
weather 1% −$126
tech 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $14 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 95¢ $1 13h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $24 13h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 90¢ $24 13h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 76¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL No 92¢ $22 14h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 89¢ $16 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 82¢ $21 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 64¢ $17 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 83¢ $22 14h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 95¢ $17 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $17 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $8 14h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 95¢ $23 14h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 82¢ $22 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $23 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 14h
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? BUY No 95¢ $19 15h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 15h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $11 15h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $62 15h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $23 19h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 19h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $7 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $38 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $16 20h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 95¢ $25 21h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 95¢ $25 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +5.7% -4.3% 57% 31% -39.6%
≤30d 609 -14.2% -22.4% 41% 30% -25.3%
≤90d 889 -6.1% -15.0% 46% 27% -22.3%
all 889 -6.1% -15.0% 46% 27% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 27% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 18% -29.8%
15% -30.6% 13% -36.5%
20% -37.4% 10% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,305.24 · official $1,305.27 (match) · 3500 history records