Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BD 0xbd3a…91fd sports 2183 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$357 (-0%) realized −$302 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%1117W / 941L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$1,841est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 94d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$5,875
other 14% +$468
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +28.5% +16.3% 73% 61% +3.0%
≤30d 832 +28.2% +16.0% 66% 59% +4.1%
≤90d 2024 +9.1% -1.3% 55% 49% -5.6%
all 2058 +8.6% -1.8% 54% 49% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 49% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 40% -15.3%
15% -19.8% 34% -23.5%
20% -27.6% 28% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$67 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses1117 / 941
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,841
Open positions10
Markets (closed)2058 / 2183
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 2058 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Etcheverry 39¢ 64¢ $168 $276 +$108 (+64%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 53¢ $290 $265 −$25 (-9%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees No 80¢ 48¢ $353 $209 −$143 (-41%)
Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Marozsan 56¢ 100¢ $32 $57 +$25 (+78%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 74¢ 54¢ $74 $54 −$20 (-28%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ 92¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Patricia Georgiana Goina 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Wallin (-1.5) vs Gombos (+1.5) Wallin 20¢ 50¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+150%)
Set Handicap: Kumstat (-1.5) vs Denolly (+1.5) Denolly 50¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Set Handicap: Gombos (-1.5) vs Wallin (+1.5) Wallin 65¢ 42¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Kym vs Kokkinakis Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail Jun 16 $334 +$21 +6%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 16 $35 −$18 -52%
Ben Shelton vs. Nick Kyrgios: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$5 -20%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $25 +$32 +129%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $207 +$201 +97%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $55 +$45 +83%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $17 +$33 +199%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Giron Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos Jun 16 $134 +$276 +206%
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi Jun 16 $42 +$3 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Collignon Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $96 −$94 -98%
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Bu (+1.5) Jun 16 $241 −$8 -3%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 16 $253 −$9 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $139 −$137 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $200 +$172 +86%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $34 +$24 +70%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $290 +$121 +42%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $388 −$388 -100%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $256 +$165 +65%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $249 −$8 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Landaluce Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$6 +83%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $211 −$14 -7%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Gauff Jun 14 $537 −$36 -7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$12 +276%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $340 +$72 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $109 +$59 +55%
ITF Wichita: William Manning vs Enzo Aguiard Jun 13 $0 $0 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $0 $0 +31%
Set 1 Winner: Tona vs Maric Jun 13 $0 $0 +44%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$14 +48%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $181 −$178 -98%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda: O/U 159.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +93%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$7 +238%
Harry Wendelken vs. Adam Walton: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$6 +365%
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Michael Mmoh: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Set Handicap: Kovacevic (-1.5) vs Mmoh (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $44 −$43 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $171 +$249 +146%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Linette (+1.5) Jun 13 $46 +$19 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $230 −$227 -99%
ITF Varnamo: Henry Bernet vs Sandro Kopp Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Set 1 Winner: Demin vs Chepelev Jun 13 $220 +$44 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$7 +21%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 13 $16 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) BUY Etcheverry 39¢ $171 5m
Set Handicap: Gombos (-1.5) vs Wallin (+1.5) BUY Wallin 65¢ $2 1h
Set Handicap: Wallin (-1.5) vs Gombos (+1.5) BUY Wallin 20¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Kym vs Kokkinakis BUY Kokkinakis 69¢ $4 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 19¢ $91 1h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari SELL Gianmarco Ferrari 97¢ $17 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ $26 1h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari BUY Gianmarco Ferrari 95¢ $16 1h
Set 1 Winner: McNally vs Ruzic BUY Ruzic 26¢ $6 1h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari BUY Leonardo Borrelli 16¢ $8 1h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari BUY Leonardo Borrelli 13¢ $7 2h
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari BUY Leonardo Borrelli 8¢ $4 2h
Set Handicap: Kumstat (-1.5) vs Denolly (+1.5) BUY Denolly 50¢ $3 3h
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail BUY Despina Papamichail 94¢ $334 4h
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Giron BUY Buse 7¢ $1 4h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 43¢ $25 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 50¢ $207 5h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 33¢ $17 5h
Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Collignon BUY Popyrin 10¢ $23 5h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Paula Cembranos BUY Nicole Gadient 32¢ $134 6h
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi BUY Gian Marco Ortenzi 94¢ $42 6h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 88¢ $4 6h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 89¢ $22 7h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina BUY Patricia Georgiana Goina 91¢ $10 7h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Claudia Ferrer Perez 23¢ $96 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $139 16h
Set Handicap: Virtanen (-1.5) vs Bu (+1.5) BUY Bu 51¢ $241 18h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Virtanen 51¢ $253 18h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 58¢ $34 18h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 53¢ $200 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $925.11 · official $925.11 (match) · 3472 history records