Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd39…5f76 crypto 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,454 (-7%) realized −$1,454 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%33W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$301
7 days−$726
14 days−$752
30 days−$752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$239
other 20% −$463
politics 16% −$289
economics 10% −$86
tech 9% −$99
crypto 8% −$134
culture 4% −$67
sports 2% −$65
weather 1% −$72
finance 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -14.0% -22.2% 23% 0% -17.8%
≤30d 41 -14.4% -22.5% 22% 0% -18.0%
≤90d 41 -14.4% -22.5% 22% 0% -18.0%
all 158 -10.3% -18.8% 21% 13% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 13% -16.2%
10% -26.6% 11% -24.3%
15% -33.7% 11% -31.6%
20% -40.2% 10% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,454
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses33 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage223d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $156 −$42 -27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $59 −$15 -25%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $243 −$5 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $423 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $151 +$2 +2%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $161 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $456 −$55 -12%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $50 −$8 -17%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 16 $152 −$106 -69%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 21 Jun 16 $40 −$15 -38%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Jun 16 $79 −$20 -26%
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 January 19-25? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 20? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $285 −$7 -2%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 15 $218 −$3 -1%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $84 −$18 -22%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 13 $744 −$116 -16%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 13 $102 −$21 -20%
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $76 $0 +0%
Will Nélson Semedo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $147 −$136 -92%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $467 −$19 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $245 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $249 −$43 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $284 −$8 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $147 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 12 $67 −$7 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $358 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $370 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $389 −$61 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $208 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $192 −$21 -11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $140 +$4 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $415 +$5 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $228 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $60 −$18 -31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $61 −$8 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26? Mar 17 $20 +$21 +104%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 25? Mar 17 $20 +$26 +133%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Mar 17 $20 +$37 +186%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 25? Jan 20 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 23? Jan 20 $20 −$11 -58%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 January 19-25? Jan 20 $20 −$15 -77%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 4AM ET Jan 20 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 20 $20 +$22 +110%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 6PM ET Jan 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 48¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 19m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 76¢ $19 21m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 21m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 21m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 78¢ $32 21m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 77¢ $47 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $29 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $59 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 78¢ $47 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 2h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $207 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $176 13h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 13h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $238 15h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $88 15h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 15h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1122 history records