Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd37…9d71
sports · 18 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$15 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$248
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 55¢ 78¢ $164 $232 +$69 (+42%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Alliance 58¢ 100¢ $9 $16 +$7 (+72%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Virtus.pro 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage SPARTA 55¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs fnatic 65¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 65¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $19 −$16 -82%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $19 +$11 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18 +$22 +118%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $48 +$27 +57%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $26 +$14 +54%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$6 -20%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$12 +135%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$17 -86%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 +$43 +193%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 55¢ $148 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 SELL ex-RUBY 9¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 58¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $31 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $48 4h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL Noir Esports 49¢ $24 4h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Noir Esports 60¢ $30 8h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 36¢ $21 8h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 15¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 66¢ $7 8h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL Walczaki 7¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 55¢ $26 8h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 65¢ $42 10h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 65¢ $8 10h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 65¢ $8 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 52¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 52¢ $13 12h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $18 12h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 65¢ $24 18h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY fnatic 65¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $10 19h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 62¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 63¢ $66 20h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 65¢ $23 20h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 75¢ $6 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +12.6% +1.9% 54% 54% -14.0%
≤30d 13 +12.6% +1.9% 54% 54% -14.0%
≤90d 13 +12.6% +1.9% 54% 54% -14.0%
all 13 +12.6% +1.9% 54% 54% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 54% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 54% -22.3%
15% -16.8% 46% -29.8%
20% -25.0% 46% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.48 · official $248.48 (match) · 37 history records