Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd36…2c00 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,088 (+20%) realized +$1,123 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%61W / 59L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days−$519
14 days+$1,024
30 days+$1,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$94
sports 24% +$1,050
politics 1% +$24
crypto 1% +$20
weather 1% +$1
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -28.5% -35.3% 39% 36% -21.6%
≤30d 113 -11.1% -19.6% 50% 45% +9.1%
≤90d 120 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 45% +9.0%
all 120 -10.4% -18.9% 51% 45% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 45% +9.0%
10% -26.7% 39% -1.4%
15% -33.8% 33% -10.9%
20% -40.3% 25% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$21 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized+$1,123
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses61 / 59
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions22
Markets (closed)120 / 142
History coverage76d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 78¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 65¢ 63¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 29¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 81¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1400.00 and 1449.99 at the end of December 2026? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-58%)
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1450.00 and 1499.99 at the end of December 2026? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-73%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 61¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 +$71 +70%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $31 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $3 +$4 +124%
Algeria vs. Austria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +65%
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,548 +$113 +7%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $101 +$58 +57%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $10 +$12 +119%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 +$32 +64%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $3 +$5 +172%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 +$1 +6%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $101 +$28 +27%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Jun 28 $15 +$5 +33%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Argentina? Jun 28 $12 −$5 -42%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 +$6 +206%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$16 +79%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 +$6 +114%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $10 +$5 +46%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $3 +$1 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Panama vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Uruguay to score first vs. Spain? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +67%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 +$1 +67%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +55%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 13h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 13h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 13h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 13h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 46¢ $10 13h
Will France be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 13h
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 13h
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 13h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 13h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 13h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 13h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 13h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 13h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 30¢ $28 13h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 13h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $31 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 15h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $20 40h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 40h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 41h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Argentina? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 41h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.80 · official $447.43 (match) · 340 history records