Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BD 0xbd35…6105 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$6
other 28% +$2
sports 13% +$3
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 3% +$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.3% 29% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 12 -9.4% -18.1% 25% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 17 -8.7% -17.4% 24% 0% -11.2%
all 37 -1.1% -10.5% 46% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage471d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $42 −$4 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $3 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 26 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $9 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $7 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $4 −$2 -35%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 04 $2 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 31 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 06 $19 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $42 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $42 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $22 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $16 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $42 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $39 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $43 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records