Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd32…fad0 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+39%) realized +$57 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$32
crypto 33% +$23
other 27% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +44.0% +30.3% 50% 50% +58.5%
≤30d 8 +44.0% +30.3% 50% 50% +58.5%
≤90d 8 +44.0% +30.3% 50% 50% +58.5%
all 8 +44.0% +30.3% 50% 50% +58.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.3% 50% +58.5%
10% +17.8% 38% +43.3%
15% +6.4% 38% +29.5%
20% -4.0% 38% +16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$3 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.33 per $1 lost it wins $5.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$16 +308%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$23 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $21 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $54 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 10h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 84¢ $10 10h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 16 history records