Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

BD 0xbd31…97a4 finance 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$4,096 (-8%) realized −$3,254 · open −$842

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3,556per market

Trades / day23.0pace

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$38,746now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-18.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-10.3%	-18.8%	50%	50%	-42.0%
≤30d	2	-10.3%	-18.8%	50%	50%	-42.0%
≤90d	2	-10.3%	-18.8%	50%	50%	-42.0%
all	2	-10.3%	-18.8%	50%	50%	-42.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover23.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.8%	50%	-42.0%
10%	-26.6%	50%	-47.5%
15% ← realistic here	-33.7%	0%	-52.6%
20%	-40.2%	0%	-57.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$107 vs −$974 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$38,746

Realized−$3,254

Unrealized−$842

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions12

Markets (closed)2 / 14

History coverage6d

Avg bet$3,556

Trades / day23.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 12 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	84¢	84¢	$17,870	$17,783	−$86 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	No	85¢	86¢	$7,699	$7,791	+$92 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	No	93¢	94¢	$3,260	$3,308	+$48 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	87¢	92¢	$2,069	$2,187	+$118 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	No	97¢	97¢	$2,073	$2,068	−$5 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	No	90¢	63¢	$2,844	$1,988	−$855 (-30%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	93¢	99¢	$930	$994	+$64 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June?	No	98¢	98¢	$669	$670	+$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	No	97¢	97¢	$564	$567	+$3 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	No	99¢	98¢	$494	$492	−$2 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	No	88¢	64¢	$660	$484	−$176 (-27%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	Yes	90¢	81¢	$458	$414	−$44 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	Jun 17	$2,029	−$974	-48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	Jun 17	$390	+$107	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	62¢	$162	1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	BUY No	97¢	$2,076	3h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June?	BUY No	98¢	$670	3h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY No	99¢	$494	3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	60¢	$347	3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	61¢	$71	3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	61¢	$71	3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	BUY Yes	92¢	$323	3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	60¢	$160	4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	60¢	$141	4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	SELL No	48¢	$470	4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	61¢	$142	4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	60¢	$594	4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	SELL No	48¢	$376	4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	SELL No	52¢	$102	5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	SELL Yes	100¢	$497	5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	SELL No	54¢	$106	5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	62¢	$1,230	6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL No	62¢	$1,691	6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	BUY Yes	86¢	$137	6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	BUY No	97¢	$564	6h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	84¢	$252	9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	BUY Yes	78¢	$351	21h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?	BUY Yes	78¢	$39	21h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$205	26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	SELL No	41¢	$45	27h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$12	28h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	BUY No	84¢	$51	28h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	BUY No	84¢	$157	28h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?	BUY No	92¢	$6	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,746.20 · official $38,746.57 (match) · 157 history records