Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd31…d38f
crypto · 545 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$156 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$156 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$7
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses278 / 265
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)543 / 545
Avg bet$5
Trades / day91.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 543 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$155
sports 2% +$7
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -15.2% -23.3% 55% 40% -16.1%
≤30d 543 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 39% -14.8%
≤90d 543 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 39% -14.8%
all 543 -12.9% -21.2% 51% 39% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover91.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 39% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 27% -23.0%
15% -35.6% 18% -30.4%
20% -41.9% 11% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.60 · official $6.60 (match) · 2431 history records