Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BD 0xbd31…abc0 sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days−$652
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -52.4% -57.0% 43% 29% -24.4%
≤30d 13 -21.0% -28.5% 54% 38% -9.0%
≤90d 13 -21.0% -28.5% 54% 38% -9.0%
all 13 -21.0% -28.5% 54% 38% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 38% -9.0%
10% -35.3% 23% -17.7%
15% -41.6% 15% -25.6%
20% -47.3% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$184 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,357
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage10d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini Errani/Paolini 79¢ 81¢ $884 $907 +$23 (+3%)
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Eva Lys 38¢ 38¢ $355 $350 −$5 (-1%)
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore Thailand 42¢ 42¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 48¢ 55¢ $18 $21 +$2 (+14%)
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Galloway/Kirkov vs Cash/Tracy Cash/Tracy 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Piracicaba (Doubles): Barbiero/Bullamah vs Britto/Villanueva Britto/Villanueva 85¢ 69¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon Pol Martin Tiffon 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan Jun 22 $1,094 +$209 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 19 $850 −$842 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1,793 +$200 +11%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 17 $211 −$211 -100%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Gauff/Pegula vs Potapova/Shnaider Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $663 +$506 +76%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $778 +$32 +4%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $633 +$192 +30%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $224 −$39 -18%
Tucuman (Doubles): Casanova/Taverna vs Aguilar/Fuente Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon BUY Pol Martin Tiffon 36¢ $2 8m
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 77¢ $39 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore BUY Thailand 42¢ $43 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore BUY Thailand 41¢ $14 1h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore BUY Thailand 41¢ $12 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 80¢ $358 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 80¢ $93 5h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan SELL Singapore 100¢ $451 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 80¢ $214 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 78¢ $86 5h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan SELL Singapore 100¢ $301 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 78¢ $100 5h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan SELL Singapore 100¢ $100 5h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 48¢ $18 6h
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Galloway/Kirkov vs Cash/Tracy BUY Cash/Tracy 57¢ $6 6h
Piracicaba (Doubles): Barbiero/Bullamah vs Britto/Villanueva BUY Britto/Villanueva 85¢ $6 6h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 73¢ $18 8h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 75¢ $29 9h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 68¢ $12 9h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 68¢ $22 9h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 68¢ $34 9h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 66¢ $216 9h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 66¢ $12 9h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 73¢ $13 9h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 94¢ $128 10h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 94¢ $200 10h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 94¢ $205 10h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 94¢ $205 10h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 38¢ $0 29h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 38¢ $18 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,357.40 · official $1,357.48 (match) · 100 history records