Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BD 0xbd2c…ae0a politics 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,108 (+0%) realized +$1,108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%34W / 138L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,415per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$24
14 days−$54
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$141
other 42% +$178
sports 8% +$1,026
culture 3% −$7
economics 2% −$4
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +2.4% -7.4% 14% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 107 +3.1% -6.7% 10% 7% -9.1%
all 172 +3.5% -6.4% 20% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 13% -9.1%
10% -15.3% 13% -17.8%
15% -23.5% 12% -25.8%
20% -31.0% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,827) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$7 · ×8.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$509
Realized+$1,108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses34 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,415
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $509 $509 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,169 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $306 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,729 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,767 −$6 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,492 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $2,374 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $278 +$3 +1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $909 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,248 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 09 $894 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,471 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $8,102 −$10 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $85 +$37 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $3,011 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $61 +$52 +86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $326 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $555 +$2 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,409 −$3 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,824 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 26 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,967 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $841 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $748 −$1 -0%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $72 +$53 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $48 +$53 +109%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $625 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $49 +$22 +46%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 20 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $509 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 3h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $759 2d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $760 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $306 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $306 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $637 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $637 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 4d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,329 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,331 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,190 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,329 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,331 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,336 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,037 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,100 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,102 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 11d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $909 11d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $826 12d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $827 12d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $813 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.70 · official $508.70 (match) · 593 history records