Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BD 0xbd2b…58e4 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+6%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 38% -4.0%
≤30d 8 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 38% -4.0%
≤90d 8 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 38% -4.0%
all 8 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 38% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 38% -4.0%
10% -22.9% 38% -13.2%
15% -30.3% 38% -21.6%
20% -37.2% 25% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$49 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $40 −$28 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $98 +$103 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $297 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $97 +$48 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $106 −$48 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $76 +$84 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records